Implemented by ECMWF as part of the Copernicus Programme
Impact story Aveiro, Portugal

Coastal salinity and rice cultivation

30 July 2026 4 min read climate risks Seasonal forecasts
Story location

Aveiro, Portugal

Aveiro · Vouga basin

Climate information helps lowland rice growers around the Ria de Aveiro manage saltwater intrusion and shifting rainfall.

Irrigated area
~4,600 ha
Basin authority
CHE
Campaign
2026

As water allocations tighten across the Ebro basin, maize and vineyard growers face increasingly difficult decisions about when — and how much — to irrigate. By combining seasonal forecasts from the C3S Agriculture Service with local agronomic knowledge, irrigation communities in the Ebro Valley are planning water use weeks ahead instead of reacting to shortages as they arrive.

The Ebro Valley is one of Spain's most productive agricultural regions, supporting large areas of irrigated maize, alfalfa, fruit orchards and vineyards. Its water supply depends heavily on winter and spring precipitation stored in reservoirs across the Pyrenees. In recent years, recurrent drought has forced basin authorities to reduce seasonal water allocations, sometimes at short notice and in the middle of the growing season.

0 Irrigated agriculture across the Ebro Valley
0 Water allocation cut confirmed in May 2026
Feb–Jun Monthly outlooks guiding each season's plan

Through the C3S Agriculture Service, the region's irrigation communities now receive seasonal forecasts of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration tailored to agricultural decision-making. These are translated into agroclimatic indicators — such as expected crop water demand and probability of allocation restrictions — that map directly onto the decisions growers have to make each spring.

01

From forecast to field decision

Each month between February and June, the service publishes an outlook for the basin combining seasonal climate forecasts with reservoir status and snowpack conditions. Advisors use it to help farmers choose between full-season maize and shorter-cycle varieties, decide which plots to fallow, and schedule deficit irrigation for vineyards where a controlled water stress can even improve grape quality.

Ebro basin reservoir storage
2026 campaign 2016–25 mean
80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 19% — August low J F M A M J J A S O N D
Storage as a share of capacity across the basin's reservoir system. Illustrative placeholder series — replace with the published campaign figures. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.

In the 2026 season, the February outlook indicated a high probability of below-average spring precipitation. Several irrigation communities responded by agreeing reduced maize sowing areas and pre-booking water for the most sensitive growth stages. When the basin authority confirmed a 30% allocation cut in May, the adjustment was already largely absorbed.

Communities adjusting plans after each monthly outlook
Share of participating irrigation communities that revised sowing area, variety choice or irrigation scheduling within four weeks of each outlook. Illustrative placeholder data.

Before, we planned irrigation assuming an average year and hoped for the best. Now we look at the seasonal outlook in February and decide crop areas and irrigation strategies with real information about the season ahead.

Irrigation community manager, Ebro Valley
02

Why it matters

Water scarcity is the defining constraint for Mediterranean agriculture under climate change. Seasonal climate information cannot make more water available — but it can make every cubic metre count, moving decisions earlier in the season when options are still open. The approach piloted in the Ebro Valley is now being explored by irrigation communities in other Spanish basins and, through the Mediterranean Demonstrator, in North Africa.

The economic argument is becoming easier to make. A reduction in sown area agreed in February costs far less than an irrigation programme abandoned in July, and the same logic applies to variety choice, fertiliser purchases and labour planning. Where irrigation communities have kept records across several campaigns, the value of acting early is visible not as a single saving but as a narrower spread between good years and bad ones.

03

What comes next

For the 2027 campaign the service will add field-scale soil moisture to the monthly outlook, so that advisors can distinguish between plots on the same allocation that are drying at different rates. The indicators themselves are also being revised with the irrigation communities that use them, replacing generic thresholds with the ones growers already trust.

The wider aim is to make the outlook part of the basin's routine rather than a service consulted in a crisis. That depends less on forecast skill than on timing: information has to arrive while decisions are still open, in a form an advisor can put in front of a grower in a single conversation.

The value of climate services shows up in decisions. When a grower changes variety or sowing area because of a forecast, and that decision pays off in a dry year, the service has done its job.

C3S Agriculture Service team

Footnotes

  1. Seasonal forecasts are produced by the ECMWF SEAS5 system and distributed through the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS).
  2. Agroclimatic indicators follow the definitions of the C3S global agriculture project; all data are open access under the Copernicus licence.
  3. Allocation figures refer to the 2026 irrigation campaign of the Ebro Basin Authority (Confederación Hidrográfica del Ebro).